Watch Schools · Module 01 · Fig 2.4.12 · The Provenance Spread
Watch Schools · Module 01 · Ch 2.4 · Forensic Horology · The Provenance Spread

The Provenance Spread

Asset valuation index 1980 to 2025 · the Marriage Frankenwatch versus the Verifiable Factory Original · diverging at the Forensic Awakening · the structural case for buying provenance.

The Forensic Awakening  ·  2005 Verifiable Factory Original 115× since 1980 Marriage  ·  Frankenwatch 8× since 1980
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Asset Valuation Index  ·  1980 = 100

Two lines, one starting point. For thirty years, composite Frankenwatches and verified factory-original specimens traded as a single market. After 2005, period-correct scholarship, dedicated comparison archives, and a new generation of investigative authentication splintered the category. The verifiable specimen broke into exponential ascent. The Frankenwatch plateaued, then declined as forensic transparency caught up with old-school dealer narratives. The contemporary premium for verifiable provenance over a comparable Frankenwatch is approximately fourteen times.

Source  ·  Art Market Research Rolex "Professional" watch index · Phillips, Christie's, Sotheby's auction archives 1980 to 2025 · Perezcope and Watches by SJX forensic reporting · Pucci Papaleo and John Goldberger scholarship  ·  Watch Schools curriculum Module 01 Ch 2.4