Watch Schools · Module 02 · The Valuation Cliff
Watch Schools · Module 02 · Forensic Horology · Tiers of Authenticity

The Valuation Cliff

Percentage of maximum valuation retained across the five tiers of authenticity · the architectural truth that a visually compelling grail can collapse from $500,000 to the sum of parts ($30,000 to $50,000) once deconstructed.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% % OF MAXIMUM VALUATION RETAINED SOVEREIGN ZONE 80–100% retained LIQUIDITY COLLAPSE 0–30% retained THE CLIFF −70% RETAINED VALUE 01 100% 02 95% 03 85% 04 80% 05 10% FACTORY ORIGINAL period-correct DNA THE MARRIAGE utilitarian composite SERVICE DIAL factory replacement UP-TRIMMED dealer cannibalization FORENSIC FRANKENSTEIN period-incorrect assembly TIER 01 TIER 02 TIER 03 TIER 04 TIER 05 · COLLAPSE THE TIERS OF AUTHENTICITY
Sovereign-tier valuation
$500K
Factory-original grail headline price · the institutional ceiling assumed at first inspection · the figure the seller is fighting to retain.
Sum-of-parts floor · once deconstructed
$30to$50K
Component-by-component realisable value · what the asset actually clears at once forensic teardown is complete and the period-incorrect graft is exposed.
Sheer drop · the Cliff
−70%
Value collapse across the Tier-04 → Tier-05 boundary · the violent re-pricing that follows the moment forensic legitimacy fails.

The first four tiers degrade gently · a discount for service work, a discount for cannibalization, a discount for the invisible scar of secondary assembly. Tier 05 is not a discount. It is a re-pricing to the raw sum of parts because the asset has crossed from component modification into the territory of fabricated historical identity. The institutional grail collapses to scrap on the same day the forensic file is published.

Source  ·  Auction-house realised-price records · Perezcope forensic teardown register · industry valuation matrices · Watch Schools internal model  ·  Watch Schools curriculum Module 02